NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Predicts Below Normal Activity With 8 to 14 Named Storms 3 to 6 Hurricanes and 1 to 3 Major Hurricanes as El Nino Expected to Suppress Season
UNITED STATES — NOAA has released its 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for the season running June 1 through November 30, 2026, forecasting a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. NOAA carries 70 percent confidence in these forecast ranges.
The Full 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers
| Category | 2026 Forecast | Average Season |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms (39 mph winds) | 8 to 14 | 14 |
| Hurricanes (74 mph winds) | 3 to 6 | 7 |
| Major Hurricanes (111 mph winds) | 1 to 3 | 3 |
The forecast totals across all three categories fall below or at the lower end of historical averages, reflecting the expected influence of El Niño development during the peak of the season.
Why El Nino Is the Key Factor Suppressing This Season
The primary driver behind the below-normal outlook is the expected development and intensification of El Niño during the hurricane season. El Niño conditions historically increase wind shear over the Atlantic basin, which disrupts storm formation and prevents tropical systems from organizing and intensifying.
However, forecasters note that competing factors are in play. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to run slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are likely to be weaker than average, both of which would normally support a more active season. The El Niño suppression effect is expected to outweigh these factors, but the competition between them introduces uncertainty into the forecast.
One Storm Is All It Takes
Despite the below-normal forecast, NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham issued a direct warning to the public: “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold. That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
The 2026 Atlantic Storm Names
NOAA has released the full 2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Name List. Storms this season will be named in order:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
This Is Not a Landfall Forecast
NOAA is clear that this outlook covers overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not predict where or when any storms may affect land, as landfall is determined by short-term weather patterns that cannot be forecast this far in advance.
Prepare Now Regardless of the Forecast
A below-normal forecast does not mean a storm-free season. Anyone living along the Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast, or in hurricane-vulnerable areas should review and update their hurricane preparedness plan before the season officially begins on June 1, 2026.
Stay with CabarrusWeekly.com for complete coverage of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season from start to finish.
