Weather

Memorial Day Brings Low End Severe Weather Risk Across Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida as SPC Issues Day 1 Outlook

ByAaron Walker May 25, 2026

UNITED STATES — Low end severe weather is possible across several areas of the country on Memorial Day, Monday May 25, 2026, according to the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Categorical Outlook issued at 1242z, valid from 1300z Monday May 25 through 1200z Tuesday May 26, 2026. The outlook covers a broad footprint from the Pacific Northwest through the Gulf Coast with the maximum risk level reaching Marginal Risk level 1 of 5 in the most active zones.

Full Risk Breakdown by Region

The SPC outlook draws distinct risk zones across multiple regions of the country for Memorial Day.

Complete risk level breakdown:

Risk Level	Areas Covered
Marginal Risk (1/5)	Central Oregon / Idaho border area
Marginal Risk (1/5)	Wyoming / Nebraska / Kansas corridor
Marginal Risk (1/5)	Tennessee / Kentucky region
Marginal Risk (1/5)	Southern Alabama / Florida Panhandle / Coastal Gulf
Marginal Risk (1/5)	Southern Texas border region
General Thunderstorms	Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast Coast
No Risk	Northern Plains, Rockies, Southwest, most of Northeast

The darkest green zones on the outlook map represent the Marginal Risk areas where the low end severe weather threat is most defined, while the lighter green shading covers regions where general thunderstorm activity is expected without an organized severe threat.

Where Each Risk Zone Sits Geographically

Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies: A Marginal Risk zone is outlined across central Oregon into Idaho, with general thunderstorm coverage extending across Washington State and into the broader Pacific Northwest. This is an isolated severe threat in a region not typically associated with Memorial Day storm activity.

Central Plains: A Marginal Risk corridor stretches through Wyoming, Nebraska, and Kansas, embedded within a broader general thunderstorm area covering portions of the Upper Midwest into Minnesota and the Dakotas. This zone represents the most classically positioned severe weather risk for the date.

Mid-South: Tennessee and Kentucky sit under a defined Marginal Risk zone, one of the more prominent dark green areas on the outlook map, indicating a focused low end severe threat across the region during the Memorial Day holiday.

Gulf Coast and Southeast: Southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and the coastal Gulf region are under a Marginal Risk zone with general thunderstorm coverage extending up the Southeast Coast through Georgia, the Carolinas, and into the Mid-Atlantic states.

Southern Texas: A small Marginal Risk area is outlined along the southern Texas border region near the Rio Grande, representing an isolated storm threat far south of most population centers.

What Marginal Risk Means for Holiday Plans

A Marginal Risk level 1 of 5 is the lowest formal severe weather risk category issued by the Storm Prediction Center. It does not mean widespread or organized severe weather is expected.

What Marginal Risk means in practical terms:

Isolated severe storms are possible but not expected to be widespread
Most people in the zone will not see severe weather on any given Marginal Risk day
Brief gusty winds, small hail, or heavy rain are the most likely hazards if a storm does become severe
Tornado threat is very low across all Marginal Risk zones on this outlook
Staying weather aware is the appropriate response, not alarm

Thunderstorm Coverage Extends Well Beyond Risk Zones

Outside the formal Marginal Risk areas, general thunderstorm coverage is indicated across a large portion of the country including the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast Coast. These areas can still see lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds even without a formal severe weather risk designation.

General thunderstorm zones to watch:

Pacific Northwest including Washington and Oregon
Upper Midwest including Minnesota and Wisconsin
Great Lakes including Michigan
Mid-Atlantic including Virginia and Maryland
Southeast Coast including Georgia and the Carolinas

Staying Weather Aware This Memorial Day

With thunderstorm chances spread across a large portion of the country and Marginal Risk zones touching multiple regions, anyone with outdoor Memorial Day plans should keep one eye on the sky regardless of their location.