Ohio Valley, Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia Face Another Round of Rain Tuesday Evening Through Wednesday Evening Before a Dry Gap Arrives to Close the Week
OHIO VALLEY — One more weather system is tracking toward the Ohio Valley before a drier pattern arrives toward the end of the week, with the EPS mean 24-hour rainfall forecast valid from May 27 through May 28, 2026 showing 0.4 inch and above zones covering a broad corridor from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians. The EPS guidance is running slightly more aggressive with totals than previous runs, with a watch for southerly trends as the system develops Tuesday into Wednesday.
Forecast Rainfall Totals Tuesday Evening Through Wednesday Evening
The EPS Mean QPF 24-hour map run initialized at 12z May 24, 2026 lays out the rainfall picture across the region.
Forecast rainfall totals by city:
| City | Forecast Total |
|---|---|
| Bloomington, Indiana | 0.68 inches |
| Cincinnati, Ohio | 0.68 inches |
| Charleston, West Virginia | 0.68 inches |
| Louisville, Kentucky | 0.64 inches |
| Lexington, Kentucky | 0.68 inches |
| Dayton, Ohio | 0.48 inches |
| Columbus, Ohio | 0.32 inches |
| Indianapolis, Indiana | 0.44 inches |
| Evansville, Indiana | 0.52 inches |
| Paducah, Kentucky | 0.44 inches |
| Bowling Green, Kentucky | 0.56 inches |
| Clarksville, Tennessee | 0.44 inches |
| Nashville, Tennessee | 0.44 inches |
| Murfreesboro, Tennessee | 0.44 inches |
| Morgantown, West Virginia | 0.48 inches |
| Beckley, West Virginia | 0.52 inches |
| St. Louis, Missouri | 0.52 inches |
| Jefferson City, Missouri | 0.48 inches |
| Springfield, Illinois | 0.40 inches |
| Quincy, Illinois | 0.32 inches |
| Urbana, Illinois | 0.29 inches |
| Knoxville, Tennessee | 0.40 inches |
| Asheville, North Carolina | 0.29 inches |
| Bristol, Tennessee | 0.40 inches |
| Lynchburg, Virginia | 0.36 inches |
| Greensboro, North Carolina | 0.25 inches |
| Charlotte, North Carolina | 0.25 inches |
| Raleigh, North Carolina | 0.29 inches |
| Chattanooga, Tennessee | 0.36 inches |
| Jonesboro, Arkansas | 0.40 inches |
| Memphis, Tennessee | 0.40 inches |
| Jackson, Tennessee | 0.40 inches |
| Huntsville, Alabama | 0.36 inches |
| Fort Wayne, Indiana | 0.05 inches |
| Kokomo, Indiana | 0.21 inches |
| Lima, Ohio | 0.13 inches |
| Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania | 0.04 inches |
| Grand Rapids, Michigan | 0.13 inches |
| Toledo, Ohio | 0.05 inches |
| Cleveland, Ohio | 0.01 inches |
| Chicago, Illinois | 0.01 inches |
| Peoria, Illinois | 0.09 inches |
| Burlington, Iowa | 0.09 inches |
Where the Heaviest Rain Is Focused
The 0.4 inch and above zone forms a clear corridor across the map, concentrated across the heart of the Ohio Valley and mid-South.
Heaviest rainfall zones:
| Zone | Total Range | Key Areas |
|---|---|---|
| Core Ohio Valley | 0.48 to 0.68 inches | Bloomington, Cincinnati, Lexington, Charleston |
| Kentucky corridor | 0.44 to 0.68 inches | Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green |
| Tennessee Valley | 0.36 to 0.44 inches | Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga |
| Central Plains | 0.40 to 0.52 inches | St. Louis, Jefferson City, Evansville |
| Appalachians | 0.29 to 0.52 inches | Beckley, Morgantown, Bristol |
| Northern fringe | 0.01 to 0.13 inches | Chicago, Cleveland, Toledo, Grand Rapids |
EPS Running More Aggressive and Southerly Trend Worth Watching
Two important caveats accompany this forecast heading into Tuesday.
Key forecast considerations:
- EPS guidance is slightly more aggressive with rainfall totals compared to previous model runs, meaning actual totals could trend higher than currently shown
- Southerly trends are possible as the system develops, which could shift the heaviest rainfall corridor further south than the current map indicates
- Watch for forecast updates Monday evening and Tuesday morning as the system comes into better model range
- A dry gap is expected to develop toward the end of the week once this system pushes through the region
The Bigger Picture Heading Into June
This Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening system represents one more wet chapter before the Ohio Valley pattern begins to settle down toward a drier stretch. Once the system clears, a better dry gap is expected toward the end of the week, providing welcome relief for communities that have been dealing with repeated rounds of rainfall across the region.
The combination of this system and the systems that follow heading into early June will be closely monitored for how they interact with the broader atmospheric pattern as meteorological summer begins.
Stay with CabarrusWeekly.com for continuing updates on the Ohio Valley rainfall forecast and the pattern outlook heading into June.
