UNITED STATES — A late-winter pattern shift is signaling that the South may be running out of time for another true “deep freeze,” with guidance and historical analogs pointing toward a major warmup that could bring 80-degree highs to parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and Tennessee around February 21–22. What the Trend Is Pointing To…
CALIFORNIA — A marine warning is in effect for the coastal waters of Los Angeles and Ventura counties in Southern California, with waterspouts currently occurring offshore, according to the alert information shown in the update. Where the Warning Area Is Focused The highlighted warning zone covers coastal waters off Los Angeles County and Ventura County,…
UNITED STATES — A strong mid-February warm signal is expanding across a large portion of the country, with the latest 6–10 day temperature outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across Iowa and much of the central and eastern United States through February 16–20. Iowa Sits in the Core of the Above-Normal Temperature Signal The outlook highlights Iowa…
TEXAS — A long-awaited rain chance is shaping up across North Texas, with guidance pointing to a healthy storm complex arriving after 9 p.m. Friday night and continuing into Saturday, producing thunderstorms, gusty winds, lightning, and pockets of heavy rainfall across the Dallas–Fort Worth region and nearby areas. Timing: Storms Build After 9 PM Friday,…
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE — A band of gusty thunderstorms is expected to sweep across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee during a 10–12 hour window, bringing heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds, with any severe-level storm expected to be isolated if it occurs. Timing Focus Centers on Tuesday Evening Into Early Wednesday The storm timeline…
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND — A fast-evolving winter storm forecast is becoming more defined for Tuesday into Wednesday, with updated guidance showing the southern edge of the system filling in and timing trending earlier than expected across parts of the region. The latest update also notes there have been no major changes to accumulation expectations, with…
UNITED STATES — A broad late-February warm signal is expanding across much of the eastern half of the country, with official 8–14 day guidance indicating a 50–60% probability of above-average temperatures between February 18 and February 24. Southeast States Included in the Warmer Zone The outlook shading clearly covers the Southeast, including North Carolina, South…
OKLAHOMA — A powerful February tornado outbreak in 2009 remains one of the clearest reminders that severe weather is not confined to a single “tornado season,” after an EF4 tornado tore through Lone Grove in Carter County and left a deadly toll. Lone Grove Tornado Ranked Among Oklahoma’s Strongest February Twisters The event occurred in…
UNITED STATES — Long-range ECMWF guidance is highlighting a highly dynamic storm system that could impact portions of the southern and central United States around February 15, with atmospheric conditions that may become supportive of organized severe weather if instability increases. Compact Upper Trough Produces Strong Large-Scale Dynamics The ECMWF model depicts a compact, fast-ejecting…
CALIFORNIA — A powerful and slow-moving Pacific storm pattern is signaling a prolonged period of heavy precipitation across California, with the most extreme impacts expected in the Sierra Nevada and significant rainfall extending into Southern California through the middle of February. Cold Upper-Level Lows Drive Extended Precipitation Window Forecast guidance shows cold upper-level low pressure…