SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES — A broad storm system is lining up to deliver soaking rainfall from the southern Plains into the Southeast, with Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas projected to receive some of the most beneficial totals. While some forecast guidance has slightly reduced rainfall expectations across portions of the Deep South, the overall signal still…
ILLINOIS — A developing storm system slated for Thursday evening into Friday morning is creating forecast uncertainty across the Midwest, with Illinois positioned between a cold rain and thunderstorm scenario and a rain-to-snow setup farther north. Two major forecast models are showing different outcomes, keeping confidence moderate at best this far out. Competing Model Scenarios…
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA — A narrow corridor from the Texas Panhandle into western and central Oklahoma could see a few isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon, including the potential for surface-based supercells. However, forecasters note that a push of drier air into the region is expected to limit the overall coverage and intensity of storms….
NEW JERSEY — A recent ECMWF operational model run has drawn attention for depicting over a foot of snowfall across parts of New Jersey, but ensemble comparisons show that solution may be on the aggressive side compared to the broader guidance envelope. While the 0z ECMWF run stands out, it is not entirely unsupported within…
UNITED STATES — The April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak remains one of the most significant tornado events in modern U.S. history, and comparing Day 1 tornado probability maps from that day highlights how forecast communication has evolved. The side-by-side comparison of the “Old Way” and “New Way” formats shows how risk areas across the Deep…
MID-ATLANTIC — A developing “slider” system may track along the lower Mid-Atlantic late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a band of precipitation from Virginia into Maryland and possibly brushing southern New England. While the setup is still several days away, early signals suggest modest north or south shifts in the storm track remain possible. West…
UNITED STATES — After a quieter-than-normal cold-season severe weather stretch across much of the Mid-South and Gulf Coast, a renewed threat is emerging that could bring the region closer to seasonal averages this weekend. Over the past 90 days, severe weather activity has been below typical levels in areas that traditionally see winter storms, particularly…
PACIFIC NORTHWEST — A significant atmospheric pattern shift is taking shape that could restore mountain snow and lower snow levels across Washington and Oregon after a stretch of less favorable conditions. Forecast guidance shows a pronounced upper-level trough digging into the western United States, replacing the prior ridge-dominated setup and opening the door for colder…
UNITED STATES — Long-range guidance suggests the Midwest agricultural belt could experience a notable warmup in late February into early March, followed by a colder reversal as planting season approaches. The evolving pattern bears similarities to temperature trends observed during March 2023, when early warmth gave way to a sharp cool-down later in the month….
MARYLAND — A developing weekend system could bring a brief window of snow late Sunday, especially north and west of the I-95 corridor, before transitioning to rain Sunday night as temperatures remain marginally above freezing. Forecast confidence is leaning toward the Canadian model solution, which has shown the most consistency with this storm setup. Canadian…