KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE — A band of gusty thunderstorms is expected to sweep across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee during a 10–12 hour window, bringing heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds, with any severe-level storm expected to be isolated if it occurs. Timing Focus Centers on Tuesday Evening Into Early Wednesday The storm timeline…
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND — A fast-evolving winter storm forecast is becoming more defined for Tuesday into Wednesday, with updated guidance showing the southern edge of the system filling in and timing trending earlier than expected across parts of the region. The latest update also notes there have been no major changes to accumulation expectations, with…
UNITED STATES — A broad late-February warm signal is expanding across much of the eastern half of the country, with official 8–14 day guidance indicating a 50–60% probability of above-average temperatures between February 18 and February 24. Southeast States Included in the Warmer Zone The outlook shading clearly covers the Southeast, including North Carolina, South…
OKLAHOMA — A powerful February tornado outbreak in 2009 remains one of the clearest reminders that severe weather is not confined to a single “tornado season,” after an EF4 tornado tore through Lone Grove in Carter County and left a deadly toll. Lone Grove Tornado Ranked Among Oklahoma’s Strongest February Twisters The event occurred in…
UNITED STATES — Long-range ECMWF guidance is highlighting a highly dynamic storm system that could impact portions of the southern and central United States around February 15, with atmospheric conditions that may become supportive of organized severe weather if instability increases. Compact Upper Trough Produces Strong Large-Scale Dynamics The ECMWF model depicts a compact, fast-ejecting…
CALIFORNIA — A powerful and slow-moving Pacific storm pattern is signaling a prolonged period of heavy precipitation across California, with the most extreme impacts expected in the Sierra Nevada and significant rainfall extending into Southern California through the middle of February. Cold Upper-Level Lows Drive Extended Precipitation Window Forecast guidance shows cold upper-level low pressure…
UNITED STATES — Long-range atmospheric guidance is beginning to highlight a developing window for increased severe weather potential across parts of the southern United States as February moves toward its final week. CFSv2 Data Highlights Elevated Supercell Environment The latest CFSv2 Week 2 Accumulated Supercell Composite Parameter shows a concentrated signal across the Lower Mississippi…
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY — A developing late-winter weather pattern is showing early spring characteristics, with repeated storm systems expected to track through the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley over the next seven days, producing widespread rainfall and locally heavy totals. Active Storm Track Sets Up Across the Central U.S. Forecast guidance…
NORTH CAROLINA — A broad and increasingly confident warm-weather signal is taking shape across the United States, with forecast outlooks showing above-normal temperatures spreading across most states east of the Rockies, including North Carolina, Florida, Texas, and much of the Midwest, through at least the next two weeks. Warmer-Than-Normal Pattern Locks In Across Much of…
NORTH CAROLINA — After a notably quiet stretch expected on Friday and Saturday, weather models are beginning to hint at a possible return to active and potentially severe weather across parts of the Southeast as the broader pattern becomes more dynamic heading into the latter part of the weekend and beyond. Quiet Period Expected to…