UNITED STATES — If you’ve been wondering where winter went, the latest upper-air temperature anomaly map provides a clear answer: it’s largely absent across the Lower 48. Forecast data valid Monday, February 16 shows widespread positive temperature anomalies at the 850 mb level stretching from the Rockies through the Plains, Midwest, South, and into the…
OHIO — A widespread surge of above-average temperatures is set to sweep across the eastern United States, bringing a noticeable winter thaw to much of Ohio and accelerating the melt of lingering snow and ice. For many communities, this marks the first significant stretch of sustained warmth in several weeks. Well Above Average Temperatures Spread…
UNITED STATES — A striking temperature trend is emerging across major American cities: daily record highs are vastly outnumbering daily record lows since January 1, 2020. The compiled data, covering January 1, 2020 through February 6, 2026, shows dramatic imbalances in nearly every region of the country — with southern and western cities experiencing the…
UNITED STATES — Long-term tornado data from 1955 through 2024 indicates that the nation’s highest annual tornado probability zone is no longer confined strictly to the traditional central Plains, but has expanded eastward into parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and the lower Mississippi Valley. The updated probability map highlights a broad swath of elevated tornado…
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES — A broad storm system is lining up to deliver soaking rainfall from the southern Plains into the Southeast, with Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas projected to receive some of the most beneficial totals. While some forecast guidance has slightly reduced rainfall expectations across portions of the Deep South, the overall signal still…
ILLINOIS — A developing storm system slated for Thursday evening into Friday morning is creating forecast uncertainty across the Midwest, with Illinois positioned between a cold rain and thunderstorm scenario and a rain-to-snow setup farther north. Two major forecast models are showing different outcomes, keeping confidence moderate at best this far out. Competing Model Scenarios…
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA — A narrow corridor from the Texas Panhandle into western and central Oklahoma could see a few isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon, including the potential for surface-based supercells. However, forecasters note that a push of drier air into the region is expected to limit the overall coverage and intensity of storms….
NEW JERSEY — A recent ECMWF operational model run has drawn attention for depicting over a foot of snowfall across parts of New Jersey, but ensemble comparisons show that solution may be on the aggressive side compared to the broader guidance envelope. While the 0z ECMWF run stands out, it is not entirely unsupported within…
UNITED STATES — The April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak remains one of the most significant tornado events in modern U.S. history, and comparing Day 1 tornado probability maps from that day highlights how forecast communication has evolved. The side-by-side comparison of the “Old Way” and “New Way” formats shows how risk areas across the Deep…
MID-ATLANTIC — A developing “slider” system may track along the lower Mid-Atlantic late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a band of precipitation from Virginia into Maryland and possibly brushing southern New England. While the setup is still several days away, early signals suggest modest north or south shifts in the storm track remain possible. West…