Memorial Day Thunderstorm Chances Cover Large Portion of the United States as Southeast Faces Possible Non-Zero Severe Weather Threat on Monday May 25
UNITED STATES — Thunderstorm chances will cover a large portion of the country on Memorial Day, Monday May 25, 2026, according to the categorical outlook issued at 3:58 AM ET on May 24, 2026. While no severe weather risks are currently outlined, forecasters are watching the Southeast closely for a potential non-zero severe threat that could be added in the next outlook update.
Where Thunderstorm Chances Are Forecast on Memorial Day
The categorical outlook map shows thunderstorm coverage stretching across a massive swath of the country from the Pacific Coast through the Southeast.
Memorial Day thunderstorm coverage by region:
| Region | Outlook Status |
|---|---|
| Pacific Northwest / California Coast | Thunderstorm chances |
| Great Basin / Nevada / Utah | Thunderstorm chances |
| Central Plains / Kansas / Oklahoma | Thunderstorm chances |
| Upper Midwest / Minnesota / Wisconsin | Thunderstorm chances |
| Great Lakes / Michigan / Indiana | Thunderstorm chances |
| Southeast / Alabama / Georgia / Florida | Thunderstorm chances |
| Carolinas / Virginia / Mid-Atlantic | Thunderstorm chances |
| Texas / Gulf Coast | Thunderstorm chances |
| Illinois | Isolated area, darker shading noted |
Areas shown in gray on the map including portions of the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic interior are not currently in the thunderstorm coverage zone.
No Severe Risks Outlined Yet But Southeast Being Watched Closely
The current maximum categorical level on the outlook is thunderstorms only, with no marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, or high risk zones drawn anywhere across the country for Memorial Day.
Current severe weather status:
| Risk Level | Status |
|---|---|
| High Risk | Not issued |
| Moderate Risk | Not issued |
| Enhanced Risk | Not issued |
| Slight Risk | Not issued |
| Marginal Risk | Not issued |
| Thunderstorms | Large portion of U.S. |
However, forecasters are explicitly flagging the Southeast as a region of concern, noting a non-zero severe weather threat that could result in an upgraded outlook in the next issuance. This means Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and the Carolinas should not treat the current lack of a severe risk as a final answer.
What a Non-Zero Severe Threat Means for the Southeast
A non-zero severe threat means forecasters believe there is a measurable, real probability of severe weather developing even if it does not yet meet the threshold for a formal risk category on the outlook map.
What Southeast residents should watch for:
- Thunderstorm chances are already in place across the entire region
- An upgraded outlook is possible before Memorial Day arrives
- Gusty winds and heavy rain are the most likely hazards if stronger storms develop
- Check the forecast again Sunday evening before finalizing Monday outdoor plans
- Holiday gatherings and outdoor events should have a backup plan in place
Which States Remain Dry on Memorial Day
Not all of the country will be dealing with storm chances on Memorial Day. Several regions are currently outside the thunderstorm coverage area.
- Northern Rockies and Montana remain dry
- Northern Plains including the Dakotas largely outside coverage
- Parts of the Northeast interior currently in gray
- Portions of the Ohio Valley not currently in the thunderstorm zone
Outlook Could Change Before Memorial Day Morning
This categorical outlook was issued in the early morning hours of May 24, giving forecasters another full day to refine the picture before Memorial Day arrives. The Southeast severe weather watch in particular means this map is not the final word on what Monday will bring.
Anyone with Memorial Day outdoor plans across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, or Central Plains should treat thunderstorm chances as a firm part of the forecast and monitor for any outlook upgrades issued later Sunday.
Stay with CabarrusWeekly.com for continuing updates on the Memorial Day weather outlook across the United States.
